Jan 15, 2026
3 min read
The Red Sox's first free agent signing of the winter was a big one, with the club committing Ranger starter Suarez to a five-year, $130 million deal on Wednesday.Suarez, who will earn an average annual value of $26 million over the life of his contract, is the third high-dollar signing of the winter for Boston, which also traded Sonny Gray and Willson Contreras to St. Louis contracts.Louis.
What if adding the Suarez deal to the payroll?Where are the Sox in dollars compared to a year ago?And what do the extra moves mean?
Where are the things?
As calculated by @RedSoxPayroll/SoxProspects , the Red Sox currently have a CBT (competitive balance after tax) of about $269 million, which includes eight free agent deals (made by other teams and at least one absorbed by Boston), six extensions and seven one-year contracts that make up the total arbitration.There are also pre-arbitration players, with Rafael Devers receiving a small amount of money and medical benefits and minor league expenses.This salary figure, which would be the largest in franchise history, not only exceeds the first CBT cap of $244 million, but also exceeds the second cap of $264 million.It was a line in the sand that the Red Sox were wary of crossing over the winter (and there's still the possibility that other moves will bring it back down).
So how did they get here?Last year, Boston's payroll exceeded the first threshold and was officially $248,859,139.Let's round up and say it's $249 million.Then the players started coming out of the game.Free agents Alex Bregman ($31.7 million), Lucas Giolito ($19.25 million), Liam Hendriks ($5 million), Steven Matz ($3.93 million prorated), Justin Wilson ($3 million), Rob Refsnyder ($1.95 million) and deals for the departed Devers ($13.6 million pre-contract CBT number to the Sox) and Walker Buehler ($22.05 million), all of whichreleased about $100 million in 2025 obligations.
A big chunk of those savings were immediately eaten up by huge jumps in AAV for two stars who signed long-term extensions: Roman Anthony and Garrett Crochet.Anthony's CBT earnings were less than $500,000 in 2025, but will increase to $16.25 million in 2026 when his eight-year, $130 million contract kicks in.Crochet goes further.Impressively, he went from $3.8 million in 2025 to $170 million in the first year of his six-year deal. Those two deals, which look great on paper, result in a $40 million cap hit heading into 2026.Add in Jordan Hicks' previous contract (which went from $6.8 million in 2026 to a total of $12 million) and Aroldis Chapman's new contract of more than $13 million.
The club's arbitration class (three players) cost a total of $10.7 million.This year, seven players (Jarren Duran, Tanner Houck, Cutter Crawford, Triston Casas, Romy Gonzalez, Connor Wong and Johan Oviedo) cost $19.36 million in that group, with an $8.7 million jump.Before adding anyone, the Red Sox had just $56 million of the $100 million in cap space.the step was talked about about $205 million in CBT dollars.
Gray Trade (Card gave $ 20 million and Sox CBT dropped to $ 21 million in 2026, the last year left of Gray's contract) increased that amount to $ 226 million just before Thanksgiving.($ 17.25 million per year) over the next two years.The deal puts Boston in the early stages of $ 243-244 million.Suárez's deal on Wednesday offered them about $ 25 million for the first level and $ 5-6 million for the second.
How does the cash factor come about?
Club sources familiar with the workings of Fenway Sports Group under various regimes have long described the budget set by principal owner John Henry as a "moving target".The characterization corresponds to the numbers he provides to decision makers, numbers that can fluctuate in the short term, and how the budget is actually calculated.Unlike numbers, the numbers are different because they are not averaged each year.Budget accounting is the third way a club has looked at its finances in recent years.
Boston’s willingness to go into uncharted territory with the CBT number — remember, in November, reported that the Red Sox contend they suffer a “modest financial loss” if they go over the first threshold, with a reluctance to incur bigger deficits — could be related to the club’s cash spending not yet matching up with the CBT numbers involved. That’s not the team’s fault, either, but simply a reality of how long-term contracts are structured, then accounted for. Many players with CBT numbers on the higher end of Boston’s ledger are making less than that figure in cold hard cash this season, but CBT figures account for the average annual value of entire deals. A deeper look at the actual money changing hands in 2026 reveals a different problem set.
Contract extensions are often pulled, especially for very young players, and some key Red Sox are making significantly less cash than their CBT hit in 2026 suggests. (These numbers will change later in the contracts).For example, Anthony's hit CBT contract next year is $16.25 million ($130 million equals eight years), but his current salary is $2 million.Kristian Campbell ($7.5 million CBT hit) and Ceddanne Rafaela ($6.25 million CBT hit) also earned $2 million each.Brian Bello is his $9.25 million CBT from his $6 million salary.And even Crochet makes $24 million in base salary, which is less than the $28 million he hits CBT.
That delta, worth more than $31 million, was offset by about a quarter of that total with several after-the-fact deals, including Trevor Story ($1.67 million more than his CBT hit), Contreras ($750,000 more), Patrick Sandoval ($3.625 million more) and Garrett ($2.5 million more) and $5 million ($2.5 million more).The Red Sox also have cash outlays from recent players' signing bonuses (including for deals issued in 2025, as usual) and as deferred money from previous deals.For example, a full calculation of the Red Sox cash budget would include a postponement of a $2.5 million payment to Dustin Pedroia on July 15. Manny Ramírez will also receive $2 million from the club this season.Yes, seriously.
Although only the Red Sox can access their books, it's clear that the cash, given how the repatriation agreements are now heavier than those previously loaded, will be reduced, perhaps much more than the CBT number.It is not known how much the Red Sox will budget.
Year-to-year details of Suarez's contract are also unknown.The Red Sox could split it equally at $26 million a year, or it could be front-loaded or back-loaded, depending on preference.
Even after Wednesday's surprise deal with Suarez, the Red Sox still need to add another bat (likely to play second or third base) and the club could use a veteran bullpen arm or two.Given the additions to various pockets of the roster, expect a salary cap.
Every team likes to unload players with inflated salaries without clear roles.The Red Sox have had their fair share.In Masataka Yoshida ($18 million), Hicks ($12 million) and Sandoval ($9.125 million), the club has three veterans who are clear candidates to pile on the salary.After a disastrous stint in Boston after the Devers trade, Hicks will likely have little to no value.Yoshida's albatross deal is hard to shake.However, Sandoval is a useful lottery pick for another club looking for a high-growth starter as long as he's healthy.The Red Sox might be able to move him, which doesn't hurt the big picture because of the depth of the rotation on the roster, and clear his entire salary.Boston may have to include a prospect in Hicks or Yoshida, or attach them to a bigger deal, to get it off the books.
The roster also features valuable trade candidates in surplus areas, which could be useful if the club wants to shed some cash (to be clear, this is an assumption and should not be taken as fact).Bello ($9.165 million), Duran ($7.7 million) and Rafaela ($6.25 million) are potential trade chips with the Red Sox looking for a corner bat.Anyone the Red Sox bring in would also add to the total.
The only thing that is clear is that Craig Breslow is not done, both in terms of his lineup and knowing the club's finances before opening day.
More Red Sox coverage
- Fenway Insider Live: Sean McAdam on Alex Bregman departure, Ranger Suarez deal, more
- Red Sox hope aggressive turn to 'Plan B' in Ranger Suarez will work like magic again |Chris Cotillo
- Alex Bregman said goodbye to the Red Sox after signing with the Cubs
- Why would the Red Sox lose two draft picks (not just one) by signing Ranger Suarez?
- Signing Suarez from the Rangers will likely lead to the Red Sox trading young starter Sean McAdam
