Feb 21, 2026
3 min read
The Twins were a playoff contender before Lopez's injury — can they make it through the season without Joe Ryan?
Twins' Pablo Lopez out for 2026 after Tommy John surgery, which could lead to more Minnesota trade rumors
The Twins were a playoff contender before Lopez got hurt - can they carry Joe Ryan the rest of the season without him?
Minnesota's already depleted postseason hopes took a big hit on Friday.Twins right-hander Pablo Lopez will undergo Tommy John surgery next Wednesday, according to The Athletic.This will be Lopez's second Tommy John surgery and a 14-18 month recovery.His season is over and he could miss the start of next season.
"Obviously, it's really disappointing news," GM Jeremy Zoll told MLB.com after tests revealed a torn UCL in Lopez's knee earlier this week."You really feel for Pablo. As everyone knows, his work ethic, how much he takes care of his body, his conditioning is second to none. It's a big let down. Understandably, he's very good."
Lopez, who turns 30 next month, had his first Tommy John surgery in 2014 as a minor leaguer.Hamstring, shoulder and forearm injuries limited him to just 14 appearances last season, but before that Lopez was one of the game's most reliable workhorses.He started 32 games each year from 2022 to 2024, ranking seventh with 559 ⅓ innings over those three years.
This is the 3rd year of the four-year, $73.5 million extension Lopez signed in April 2023. He is owed $21.5 million in both 2026 and 2027. That salary, along with an injury that wipes out all of 2026 and at least part of 2027, makes Lopez untradeable. At least for the next 18 months.That could change when he returns next year.
FanGraphs projects Minnesota's odds at 26.0% after Lopez's injury.They were considered an unlikely candidate to go into the spring with him.Losing him is devastating.Here's the club's updated rotation depth chart:
- RHP Joe Ryan
RHP Pablo Lopez (will miss 2026 due to Tommy John surgery) - RHP Bailey Ober
- RHP Simeon Woods Richardson
- RHP Taj Bradley
- RHP Zabie Matthews
-RHP Mick Abel
- RHP David Festa
There's plenty of talent and upside there, even if the lineup isn't great and the bullpen is short on proven late-game options.If the Twins contend this year, it will be because their rotation is living up to its potential and supporting the offense and hitting, but López's injury is now taking away a significant part of that rotation.Big blow.No doubt.
Ryan has been the subject of trade rumors for over a year now.If the Twins lose contention, he will be the main starter at the trade deadline.He has two years left in charge, and according to López's injury, that two-year rule could quickly be cut in half.The longer the Twins keep Ryan, the more likely he is to suffer an injury.
Minnesota went 70-92 last season and traded heavily in the middle of the season, moving 10 members of the 26-man roster in the days before the trade deadline.At the time, Lopez was on the injured list and not a real trade candidate.
