Feb 02, 2026
3 min read
From yardage totals to long shots and everything in between, here's a look at the Super Bowl betting odds.
There are endless ways to bet on Super Bowl LX.In addition to the usual on-field stats and results, even the on-field entertainment is valuable for the Seattle Seahawks vs. New England Patriots game.
The jobs we'll be looking at here are the looks, with Ben Solak looking at the offensive side of the ball and Seth Walder looking at the defensive end.
Solak and Walder bring different perspectives to how they approach sports betting.Solak relies on his expertise in player evaluation and X's and O's to find advantages.Walder relies on statistical models to select bets with expected plus value.They'll give you a look at how the teams match up before diving into some bets that make sense on both sides.
Here's how our analysts see the betting edges available for Super Bowl LX, from total yards to interceptions and everything in between.
Note: DraftKing Sportsbook's Super Bowl odds are subject to change.
When the Seahawks have the ball
Jeff Saturday said Drake Maye can count on his teammates and coaching staff to help lead the Patriots to victory in Super Bowl LX.
Seattle takes a first-come, first-served approach.The Seahawks led the league in rushing percentage largely because they led the way for several of their regular season outbursts.On the season, they have a 4.9% expected run rate, the ninth-highest rate among all teams.So they are a bit more balanced than they first appear.
Seattle is one of the most under-centered teams in all of football, which goes with their run-first approach.Only the Los Angeles Rams had more under center, and only five teams had more yards per game from under center.Seattle combines these formations with the most dynamic personnel.The Seahawks ran 11 men, the fourth-lowest of all teams, instead using two-back sets from fullback Roby.Opt for Oozettes (24.8% snaps) or multiple tight end sets (42.7% snaps) over Eric Saberbert or Elias Arroyo (recently injured).
Because the Seahawks are so committed to their run action with heavy sets and under-center alignments, their boot and drop game is especially dangerous (12.6% of quarterback Sam Darnold's drops are scored, which was fifth in the league this season).When Darnold is launched, Darnold is expected to average 0.44 and add 5.5% per point.His 11.1 yards per attempt is second only to Lamar Jackson.
This focus on the passing game was especially important against the Patriots, who won the pass rush with the elite defensive duo of Milton Williams and Christian Barmore.By moving Darnold and moving the pocket, Seattle can protect him from quick interior pressure that leads to decent plays.
Millor aposta a Seattle Gamer Tools
Sam Darnold MORE 6.5 yards in a hurry (-106)
The more Darnold gets out, the more likely he is to take a free pass to gain fewer yards.Darnold ran the ball more in the second half of the season than he did in the first half.However, 25 of his 38 attempts (66%) have come in his last 10 games.Some of those attempts were knee rushes, but if we take that away, the difference is even greater, with 19 of his 25 attempts (76%) coming in the second half of the season.
Darnold over 2.5 rushes is also an interesting bet at +107, as the Seahawks are a 4.5-point favorite over the Patriots and, accordingly, more likely to kneel the football at any time.
George Holany OVER 11.5 receiving yards (-107)
Kenneth Walker III continued his excellent season running the football in the Seahawks' win over the Rams and increased his damage as a pass catcher early on screens.But to keep him fresh in Zach Charbonnet's absence, the Seahawks moved him frequently in the backfield and stuck Holany as the third linebacker.Holani had 14 carries to Walker's 15 against the Rams and had four targets for 27 in the game.yards piled up.
Even though Holland isn't a household name, an 11.5-yard line for a third down in what should be a close game is just too low and should be run accordingly.
Today's Varna Todd (+255)
I really like to use Barner to score touchdowns, as he is the designated tush-tush shoe of the Seahawks offense.In the summer season, Barner has 12 secret pieces;Darnold has five.It is worth noting that Darnold's sneaks became more common in the second half of the season, but on third and goal from the 1-yard line, you will find the 6-foot-6, a good feeling about the 251-pound Barner.
The Patriots have had one of the worst defenses in football this season, but they've largely avoided red zone drives thanks to their stellar performance in the 20s. The Seahawks' offense should give them a tougher challenge than they've had in any postseason, so I'm not interested in Seattle's touchdown at all. I expect the Seahawks to end up scoring seven points, not three.
When the Patriots have the ball
New England's offense is a classic offense designed for a supercomputer quarterback.The Patriots finished the regular season second behind the Arizona Cardinals in rushing.They also use formations to spread out the defense and give quarterback Drake Maye room to keep defenders guessing.Unlike the Seahawks, over 50% of their snaps are tight ends, second only to the San Francisco 49ers.Because the Patriots wanted to provide a clear picture ahead of May, they ran a relatively static pre-snap;They shot just 54.3 percent of their offensive snaps, the fifth-lowest rate in football.
The Patriots' spread-and-fury method allows Maia to play point guard and spread into a deep room of talented receivers and tight ends.Nine Patriots passers have at least 200 yards in the regular season, more than twice as many as the Seahawks, who had just four.(1781) than Jackson Smith-Njigba alone (1793).
Although the Patriots are static in their formations and pre-snap operation, they use a fullback (Jack Westover) and several sets of tight ends, along with big personnel, to force defenses into certain coverages and packages (25.3% of the Patriots' dropbacks this season have come against the base defense, mainly due to their heavier grouping).It's something they share with the Seahawks, who have seen the bases loaded on a whopping 34.2% of their dropbacks.
Best bets on Patriots offensive player accessories
Drake Maye 20+ Finishes (-106)
The Seahawks defense is built to force checks and prevent big plays.May has been an explosive passer this season, but no defense has forced a shallower target depth than Seattle's 6.5 yards.If the Patriots continue to slide, expect Maye to conduct more testing in an effort to establish an offensive rhythm in a way he hasn't achieved during the Patriots' snowball days so far in the postseason.them than the Seahawks.
Hunter Henry is under 39.5 yards receiving (-110).
I usually like Henry as a strong three-down tight end, but this is not the matchup for him.The Patriots want to use him as a seam or deep corner/cross runner, so Henry is more effective against one-high defensive shells (2.34 yards per route run) compared to two-deep shells (1.30 yards per route run).Henry is impressive in coverage.Rookie Nick Emmenvory will see plenty, and even if the Seahawks' defense offers more tight ends than an average defense, it's only marginally so.
Trevion Henderson Over 24.5 Yards Rushing + Receiving (-113)
The explosive tight end disappeared from the game plan against the Broncos, as his three touches for five yards were his fewest since October against the Tennessee Titans.Henderson has some mental chops in pass protection, and I think the coaching staff is afraid to expose him too much on Denver's blitz-happy defense.But the Seahawks don't blitz nearly as much, and I think Henderson will get some designer touches as well as a standard carry menu to make big plays without pushing the ball down.This is a common claim for Henderson's increased role, but we can also go home with a few touches because Henderson is so quick.
Walder's defensive collapse
Defensive betting is as much about the tendencies, strengths and weaknesses of the offense as it is about the defense.
So, yes, it's important that the Seahawks have a defensive unit that's impossible to run against (just forget about the conference championship game) and forces opponents to 5.1 air yards per attempt, second-most of any defense.
What is also very concerning is that Maye has a bit of a sack problem and Darnold has a bit of an interception problem.
But as with betting in any category, nothing matters more than luck.So, despite everything I wrote above, below is the under for Seahawks quarterback (vs. Maye) and interception, also for Seahawks quarterback (vs. Maye) — because that's what my models determined to be the best bet.
As usual for me, I rely on mathematical models to find values against the odds.So instead of trying to see how the game will turn out, I let the numbers guide me in the bets I make.
The best safe bet
Elijah Ponder Morey 0,25 True (+483)
Above all, this bet depends on the injury situation and playing time of Harold Landry III.Landry has been recovering from a knee injury that has reduced his workload or forced him to sit out every game since Week 16, including sitting out the entire AFC Championship.Meditation is an important beneficiary of playing time.
An undrafted rookie free agent, Ponder has 4.0 sacks this season and a 10.9% edge rush win rate (slightly below average for a starter), but he should hardly be amazing at these odds.And likewise, given the major plus-money here, Landry doesn't need to be inactive to make this bet worthwhile.It's a good bet whether Landry is out or he'll be playing about half his normal workload, as he has been for over a month now.And I'm willing to take that chance.
Milton Williams Under 0.25 Sacks (-194)
Williams is coming off a season in which he posted a 13% pass rush rate at defensive tackle, which would have ranked sixth had he been eligible.But the "defensive tackle" part is important to the sack prediction here, because inside linebackers hurt the quarterback more often.Williams epitomizes that, recording 5.5 sacks in 15 games despite having a tremendous season.
The Patriots are underdogs, so this game won't bring out Williams' sack more than most.Making more sacks is a phenomenon, and the biggest change will be the team that loses.The losing team will be forced to go to a clear zone. This will cause the defensive players to forget about their assignments and just get behind the quarterback. It is less in the Super Bowl than most of the Patriots games this season.My price for this type Williams under -302.
Coby Bryant to record 1+ interceptions (+950).
This is a new model that I won right before the Super Bowl because who doesn't want another long run?And I'm glad I did because he found a player he loved.Bryant was picking.It sees three things Bryant needs to take into this game.
1. The Seahawks are favored, which means more expected pass attempts for May. And possibly more desperate pass attempts.
2. Bryant has four interceptions this season.I found that no matter how random the interceptions are, there is a signal that makes Bryant more likely to be selected to the Super Bowl.
3. Bryant plays safety almost exclusively.Interceptions often occur when a player plays safety, but some safeties spend playing time on the field.Not Bryant.He's playing almost every snap, and 94% of those snaps are actually safeties, according to NFL Next Gen data.
The result?My model puts fair odds on Bryant at +535.If it's good, we got the price.
Devon Witherspoon UNDER 6.5 shots + assists (-137)
A combined 6.5 line is too high for a corner.And I get it, because Witherspoon's ratings are very high for her position.He recorded a play or assist on 10.6% of his defensive snaps, fifth best among all outside corners with at least 300 snaps this season.
But my model is well aware of this fact and believes there is under play.Why?Power of base rate.For all the tackles Witherspoon made in his 14 games played this season, we have many more data points on corners league-wide.And only 12% of the games played by the outside cornerback recorded seven or more tackles.
Byron Murphy II Under 0.25 Sacks (-216)
His 7.0 sacks this season are excellent for a defensive tackle, though his pass-rushing stats are poor going forward, with a 9.2% pass rush win rate at defensive tackle (17th best among qualifiers) and a 6.7% pressure rate (ninth best).
I'll admit, this bet scares me a little, because Meyer's weakness all season has been sacks;his 8.8% drop rate ranks fifth among QBR-worthy quarterbacks. But my model puts that value at -309, and I always tend to trust those numbers, especially in the most successful categories so far.
